Method

What the numbers mean and how we got them. We would rather show you the limits than sell you a dream.

Score

35% consistency (share of months in profit, needs 3+ months), 15% track record (closed non-crypto markets, saturates at 150), 15% focus away from 5-minute crypto, 15% ROI per market, 10% holding time ≥ 1 day, 10% size of realized profit. It rewards people who win most months on real events and hold for days, the only profile that survives being copied with a delay.

Why no 5-minute crypto

We ran 32 bot strategies on Polymarket's 5/15-minute Up/Down markets for two days with a fill-realistic simulator: market making, last-second sniping, order-flow following, futures-based prediction. Every family lost after fees; the order book already knew everything the Binance futures feed knew. Wallets that profit there are latency shops. Their numbers would top any naive leaderboard and teach you nothing.

Copying with a delay

We paper-copied leaderboard wallets with a 60-second delay for a day: average slippage 3.7 cents per dollar, 7 cents on thin sports books, 2.7 cents on event markets. Sports copying at that delay was break-even at best; event-market leaders hold for weeks, where a minute does not matter. That is why the score favours them.

Favourites are fairly priced

Across 6,951 resolved markets, favourites priced 0.90–0.99 resolved at exactly their price: buying "near-certain" outcomes earns about 0%. Edge on Polymarket comes from information, not from cheap tricks. Leaders are people with information.

Data

Polymarket public APIs: leaderboards, per-wallet PnL curves, closed positions, the global trade stream and the CLOB. Profiles refresh daily, the trade feed every 5 seconds.