aviato 85
0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2024-07
Realized PnL
$203,052
Months in profit
26 / 28
Win rate (events)
81%
ROI per market
0.8%
Avg stake
$7,235
Median hold
19.7 d
Volume
$29,902,038
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 999 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-05-10); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 313 sports 218 culture 175 geopolitics 138 tech 49 esports 35
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trades captured yet. The feed fills up as tracked wallets trade. | |||||||
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | No | 17957 | 0.84 | 0.92 | $16,601 | $1,547 | other |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? | No | 14884 | 0.84 | 0.95 | $14,118 | $1,633 | other |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 16000 | 0.84 | 0.85 | $13,680 | $210 | geopolitics |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 12520 | 0.91 | 0.96 | $11,988 | $652 | other |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | No | 9715 | 0.86 | 0.95 | $9,200 | $890 | politics |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 8565 | 0.92 | 0.95 | $8,180 | $325 | geopolitics |
| Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI? | No | 7561 | 0.93 | 0.92 | $6,971 | −$30 | tech |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 7050 | 0.92 | 0.92 | $6,451 | −$4 | esports |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | 5366 | 0.92 | 0.93 | $4,964 | $18 | geopolitics |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 5000 | 0.92 | 0.95 | $4,775 | $165 | geopolitics |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 5000 | 0.90 | 0.92 | $4,575 | $55 | politics |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 5000 | 0.91 | 0.92 | $4,575 | $5 | esports |
| Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 5591 | 0.84 | 0.81 | $4,557 | −$116 | geopolitics |
| Will Daniel Craig be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 3996 | 0.93 | 0.99 | $3,942 | $227 | geopolitics |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 4500 | 0.70 | 0.79 | $3,548 | $399 | other |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | No | 3000 | 0.98 | 0.99 | $2,975 | $26 | politics |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 3000 | 0.95 | 0.97 | $2,921 | $57 | other |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | No | 2960 | 0.92 | 0.97 | $2,859 | $141 | other |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | Anthropic | 3000 | 0.94 | 0.94 | $2,833 | $6 | macro |
| Will "Toy Story 5" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 2824 | 0.89 | 0.97 | $2,736 | $213 | geopolitics |
| Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 2923 | 0.92 | 0.93 | $2,723 | $43 | geopolitics |
| Will Adam Scott be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 2557 | 0.94 | 0.97 | $2,471 | $60 | geopolitics |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | No | 2416 | 0.94 | 0.98 | $2,361 | $84 | other |
| Will Robert Aramayo be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 2187 | 0.94 | 0.96 | $2,111 | $63 | geopolitics |
| US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? | No | 2128 | 0.95 | 0.96 | $2,043 | $18 | other |
| Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 2300 | 0.87 | 0.86 | $1,989 | −$11 | geopolitics |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 2040 | 0.95 | 0.96 | $1,966 | $30 | esports |
| Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 2009 | 0.92 | 0.96 | $1,920 | $77 | politics |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 2000 | 0.94 | 0.95 | $1,908 | $18 | politics |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | No | 2000 | 0.88 | 0.95 | $1,903 | $149 | other |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 2000 | 0.93 | 0.94 | $1,890 | $20 | politics |
| Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31? | No | 1855 | 0.92 | 0.93 | $1,732 | $33 | other |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 2025 | 0.68 | 0.81 | $1,640 | $262 | other |
| Will Kayleigh McEnany be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 1655 | 0.95 | 0.97 | $1,607 | $27 | other |
| Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026? | No | 1605 | 0.95 | 0.97 | $1,563 | $31 | other |
| Will "Cry to Heaven" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 1536 | 0.91 | 0.98 | $1,509 | $106 | geopolitics |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | Yes | 1507 | 0.92 | 0.95 | $1,426 | $40 | other |
| Will Digger win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 1464 | 0.94 | 0.97 | $1,416 | $46 | geopolitics |
| Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? | No | 1437 | 0.98 | 0.98 | $1,408 | −$2 | geopolitics |
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? | No | 1358 | 0.88 | 0.94 | $1,282 | $82 | other |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20m ago | SELL | Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 0.95 | $6 |
| 2h ago | SELL | Will Julianne Moore be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.05 | $5 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 0.91 | $910 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $5 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $6 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $41 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $53 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $22 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will "The End of Oak Street" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.89 | $45 |
| 8h ago | SELL | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | Yes | 0.93 | $245 |
| 8h ago | SELL | Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.99 | $42 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.90 | $38 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.90 | $18 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.90 | $72 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.90 | $473 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.90 | $27 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.93 | $71 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.93 | $56 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.93 | $61 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.93 | $429 |
| 10h ago | SELL | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.97 | $49 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Yucatán Congress election? | Yes | 0.09 | $4 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Yucatán Congress election? | Yes | 0.09 | $6 |
| 14h ago | SELL | Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.94 | $24 |
| 14h ago | BUY | Will "NAZA" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.76 | $66 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026? | No | 0.91 | $20 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31? | No | 0.98 | $1,410 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? | No | 0.94 | $19 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? | No | 0.94 | $37 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? | No | 0.94 | $19 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? | No | 0.94 | $37 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? | No | 0.94 | $19 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? | No | 0.94 | $47 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? | No | 0.94 | $281 |
| 16h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | Yes | 0.93 | $9 |
| 16h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | Yes | 0.93 | $48 |
| 16h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | Yes | 0.93 | $154 |
| 16h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | Yes | 0.93 | $20 |
| 16h ago | SELL | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $637 |
| 16h ago | SELL | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $173 |