BAO95889 79
0x300c5e1ec9e4d6e8bd9617f0a44508170c5b6a92 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2025-10
Realized PnL
$28,248
Months in profit
11 / 13
Win rate (events)
68%
ROI per market
4.2%
Avg stake
$412
Median hold
39.5 d
Volume
$1,134,238
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 1000 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-06-14); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 375 geopolitics 251 tech 138 sports 75 esports 50 crypto 50
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16m ago | BAO95889 | BUY | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.15 | $7 | other |
| 61m ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.28 | $41 | geopolitics |
| 3h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.29 | $15 | geopolitics |
| 3h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "Club Kid" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.26 | $47 | geopolitics |
| 3h ago | BAO95889 | BUY | Will "Club Kid" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.23 | $119 | geopolitics |
| 4h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "Elsinore" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.32 | $37 | geopolitics |
| 7h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "32B" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.23 | $23 | geopolitics |
| 8h ago | BAO95889 | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.54 | $3 | geopolitics |
| 8h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "32B" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.25 | $11 | geopolitics |
| 9h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "El Cuerpo de Cristo" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.24 | $12 | geopolitics |
| 9h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "El Cuerpo de Cristo" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.24 | $29 | geopolitics |
| 15h ago | BAO95889 | BUY | CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by March 31, 2027? | No | 0.65 | $40 | macro |
| 15h ago | BAO95889 | BUY | Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 0.27 | $123 | macro |
| 15h ago | BAO95889 | BUY | Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.75 | $72 | macro |
| 18h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "Saba" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.21 | $5 | geopolitics |
| 24h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will Saba win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.95 | $40 | geopolitics |
| 27h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.54 | $71 | geopolitics |
| 28h ago | BAO95889 | SELL | Will "Ink" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.27 | $41 | geopolitics |
| 28h ago | BAO95889 | BUY | Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.15 | $8 | geopolitics |
| 33h ago | BAO95889 | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.47 | $119 | geopolitics |
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 500 | 0.94 | 0.97 | $486 | $16 | other |
| Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 500 | 0.95 | 0.97 | $483 | $8 | other |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 500 | 0.96 | 0.95 | $475 | −$5 | other |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 500 | 0.94 | 0.92 | $458 | −$11 | other |
| Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 500 | 0.89 | 0.91 | $453 | $9 | other |
| Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 500 | 0.79 | 0.85 | $425 | $30 | other |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 300 | 0.73 | 0.81 | $242 | $24 | other |
| Will Discord IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 239 | 0.78 | 0.98 | $233 | $47 | macro |
| Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026? | Yes | 211 | 0.65 | 0.85 | $180 | $44 | geopolitics |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2027? | No | 202 | 0.82 | 0.86 | $174 | $9 | other |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | No | 218 | 0.45 | 0.70 | $153 | $55 | tech |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | Yamal | 300 | 0.45 | 0.30 | $90 | −$45 | other |
| Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 500 | 0.23 | 0.14 | $73 | −$42 | other |
| Will Werner Pretorius be the next mayor of Mangaung? | Yes | 262 | 0.43 | 0.21 | $55 | −$57 | politics |
| Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 500 | 0.04 | 0.10 | $49 | $27 | other |
| Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? | No | 202 | 0.18 | 0.17 | $35 | −$1 | other |
| Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 660 | 0.03 | 0.03 | $21 | $1 | other |
| Will Iran target Iraq by October 22, 2026? | No | 211 | 0.26 | 0.08 | $18 | −$38 | geopolitics |
| Discord IPO before 2027? | Yes | 243 | 0.39 | 0.06 | $15 | −$80 | macro |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 1680 | 0.17 | 0.00 | $0 | −$289 | geopolitics |
| Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | Australia | 1599 | 0.43 | 0.00 | $0 | −$683 | sports |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 17? | Yes | 1397 | 0.00 | 0.00 | $0 | −$3 | weather |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | Yes | 1150 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $0 | −$17 | sports |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | Yes | 1000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | $0 | −$5 | geopolitics |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 21? | Yes | 872 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $0 | −$8 | weather |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | France | 800 | 0.00 | 0.00 | $0 | −$3 | sports |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | No | 800 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $0 | −$5 | other |
| Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 723 | 0.25 | 0.00 | $0 | −$184 | geopolitics |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 18, 2026? | Yes | 700 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $0 | −$4 | geopolitics |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 16, 2026? | Yes | 700 | 0.00 | 0.00 | $0 | −$3 | geopolitics |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 700 | 0.11 | 0.00 | $0 | −$78 | sports |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 17, 2026? | Yes | 700 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $0 | −$4 | geopolitics |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026? | Yes | 640 | 0.02 | 0.00 | $0 | −$10 | other |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 600 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $0 | −$7 | geopolitics |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026? | Yes | 600 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $0 | −$6 | geopolitics |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 19, 2026? | Yes | 566 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $0 | −$5 | geopolitics |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 542 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $0 | −$6 | geopolitics |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 17? | Yes | 508 | 0.12 | 0.00 | $0 | −$62 | weather |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 500 | 0.00 | 0.00 | $0 | −$1 | esports |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Yes | 500 | 0.00 | 0.00 | $0 | −$2 | crypto |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17s ago | BUY | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.20 | $20 |
| 6m ago | SELL | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | Yes | 0.28 | $15 |
| 12m ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.21 | $1 |
| 16m ago | BUY | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.80 | $4 |
| 16m ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.15 | $7 |
| 16m ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.85 | $2 |
| 28m ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.52 | $3 |
| 28m ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.56 | $3 |
| 28m ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.58 | $0 |
| 28m ago | SELL | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.55 | $55 |
| 31m ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.37 | $21 |
| 35m ago | BUY | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.78 | $5 |
| 35m ago | BUY | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.81 | $4 |
| 37m ago | BUY | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.81 | $4 |
| 57m ago | SELL | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.23 | $1 |
| 58m ago | BUY | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.26 | $2 |
| 59m ago | BUY | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.25 | $1 |
| 59m ago | BUY | Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.74 | $74 |
| 61m ago | SELL | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.28 | $41 |
| 87m ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.58 | $3 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.34 | $1 |
| 2h ago | SELL | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.35 | $28 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.56 | $3 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.48 | $2 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.49 | $2 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.50 | $3 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.50 | $50 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.45 | $5 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.51 | $3 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.53 | $3 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.54 | $3 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.25 | $6 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.75 | $1 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.78 | $5 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.23 | $46 |
| 2h ago | SELL | Will 32B win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.02 | $0 |
| 2h ago | SELL | Will "32B" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.25 | $14 |
| 2h ago | SELL | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.26 | $26 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.30 | $2 |
| 2h ago | SELL | Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0.31 | $32 |