eightpenguins 80
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2025-08
Realized PnL
$298,106
Months in profit
10 / 15
Win rate (events)
72%
ROI per market
17.7%
Avg stake
$6,298
Median hold
45.4 d
Volume
$3,777,581
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 518 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2025-08-29); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 240 geopolitics 107 tech 48 culture 47 macro 29 politics 22
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trades captured yet. The feed fills up as tracked wallets trade. | |||||||
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 28400 | 0.75 | 0.85 | $24,282 | $3,060 | geopolitics |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 15896 | 0.58 | 0.80 | $12,716 | $3,479 | other |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 24090 | 0.37 | 0.51 | $12,165 | $3,197 | esports |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 15555 | 0.65 | 0.71 | $11,122 | $1,033 | politics |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 18348 | 0.33 | 0.39 | $7,064 | $1,009 | politics |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 6925 | 0.74 | 0.96 | $6,673 | $1,558 | geopolitics |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 12702 | 0.37 | 0.51 | $6,446 | $1,703 | esports |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 8888 | 0.60 | 0.64 | $5,644 | $311 | politics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 51195 | 0.23 | 0.10 | $5,375 | −$6,604 | geopolitics |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 4492 | 0.60 | 0.79 | $3,542 | $848 | other |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 2802 | 0.81 | 0.86 | $2,424 | $162 | macro |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 3333 | 0.58 | 0.63 | $2,083 | $150 | esports |
| Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | No | 2924 | 0.71 | 0.64 | $1,871 | −$215 | esports |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes | 18887 | 0.19 | 0.04 | $850 | −$2,661 | geopolitics |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | Yes | 4453 | 0.30 | 0.15 | $690 | −$666 | other |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 3233 | 0.55 | 0.17 | $566 | −$1,207 | other |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 5577 | 0.13 | 0.10 | $544 | −$195 | geopolitics |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 4567 | 0.40 | 0.07 | $343 | −$1,504 | geopolitics |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | Yes | 11519 | 0.14 | 0.03 | $317 | −$1,271 | other |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 3119 | 0.34 | 0.10 | $306 | −$751 | geopolitics |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | Yes | 3438 | 0.06 | 0.08 | $275 | $69 | other |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 101110 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $0 | −$977 | macro |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Yes | 56210 | 0.19 | 0.00 | $0 | −$10,824 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | Yes | 46563 | 0.39 | 0.00 | $0 | −$17,929 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | Yes | 43508 | 0.18 | 0.00 | $0 | −$7,886 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? | Yes | 35452 | 0.10 | 0.00 | $0 | −$3,489 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 35024 | 0.32 | 0.00 | $0 | −$11,306 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 34029 | 0.37 | 0.00 | $0 | −$12,503 | geopolitics |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | Yes | 26396 | 0.11 | 0.00 | $0 | −$2,799 | other |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? | Yes | 25804 | 0.26 | 0.00 | $0 | −$6,756 | other |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs | Team Liquid | 22222 | 0.37 | 0.00 | $0 | −$8,222 | sports |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | Yes | 22221 | 0.07 | 0.00 | $0 | −$1,516 | geopolitics |
| Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? | Yes | 22221 | 0.69 | 0.00 | $0 | −$15,343 | other |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | Yes | 22217 | 0.33 | 0.00 | $0 | −$7,305 | geopolitics |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | Yes | 19836 | 0.57 | 0.00 | $0 | −$11,293 | geopolitics |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 18712 | 0.12 | 0.00 | $0 | −$2,237 | macro |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | Yes | 17790 | 0.29 | 0.00 | $0 | −$5,170 | geopolitics |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 15319 | 0.12 | 0.00 | $0 | −$1,802 | geopolitics |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | Yes | 14682 | 0.14 | 0.00 | $0 | −$2,127 | geopolitics |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) | No | 13572 | 0.19 | 0.00 | $0 | −$2,643 | culture |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | BUY | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 0.13 | $402 |
| 2h ago | BUY | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 0.13 | $189 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $854 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $804 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $24 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $251 |
| 2d ago | SELL | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 0.54 | $2 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 0.54 | $5 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | No | 0.41 | $20 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | No | 0.41 | $41 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | No | 0.41 | $8 |
| 3d ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $9 |
| 3d ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $1 |
| 3d ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $0 |
| 3d ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.13 | $94 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 0.54 | $22 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 0.54 | $625 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | No | 0.33 | $1 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | No | 0.33 | $242 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | No | 0.43 | $955 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | No | 0.61 | $67 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | No | 0.61 | $69 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | No | 0.61 | $1,220 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 0.54 | $566 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 0.54 | $657 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 0.37 | $2 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 0.37 | $2 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 0.37 | $9 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 0.37 | $9 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | No | 0.37 | $93 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 0.81 | $2,262 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | Yes | 0.06 | $6 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 0.67 | $804 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | No | 0.72 | $1,094 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.72 | $641 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.72 | $1 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | No | 0.72 | $26 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.72 | $41 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.72 | $29 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.72 | $407 |