Vilgefortz 81
0x3c918a8ef8c379304f744592120cbb4d76149af7 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2024-06
Realized PnL
$345,156
Months in profit
24 / 29
Win rate (events)
76%
ROI per market
2.7%
Avg stake
$34,548
Median hold
26.5 d
Volume
$13,408,259
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 361 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2024-07-05); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 109 geopolitics 66 crypto 63 macro 55 politics 33 sports 19
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28h ago | Vilgefortz | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.86 | $65,184 | macro |
Open positions (11)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 259500 | 0.86 | 0.86 | $224,468 | $273 | macro |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 50000 | 0.93 | 0.95 | $47,750 | $1,223 | geopolitics |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 35000 | 0.85 | 0.93 | $32,375 | $2,515 | other |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 35800 | 0.83 | 0.77 | $27,584 | −$2,170 | esports |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 41000 | 0.47 | 0.35 | $14,555 | −$4,650 | politics |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 37000 | 0.46 | 0.15 | $5,587 | −$11,561 | politics |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | Yes | 5800 | 0.75 | 0.77 | $4,440 | $89 | politics |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 5500 | 0.53 | 0.58 | $3,218 | $290 | politics |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 4800 | 0.65 | 0.61 | $2,952 | −$178 | politics |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3200 | 0.68 | 0.72 | $2,320 | $139 | politics |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | Yes | 11600 | 0.26 | 0.10 | $1,102 | −$1,910 | macro |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $174 |
| 28h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.86 | $82 |
| 28h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.86 | $65,184 |
| 30h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $238 |
| 32h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $7 |
| 32h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $1 |
| 33h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $1 |
| 33h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $6 |
| 33h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $28 |
| 33h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $82 |
| 33h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $87 |
| 33h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $55 |
| 34h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $4 |
| 34h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $122 |
| 35h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $8 |
| 35h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $3 |
| 35h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $2 |
| 35h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $4 |
| 35h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $14 |
| 35h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $4 |
| 35h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $1 |
| 36h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $30 |
| 36h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $24 |
| 36h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $26 |
| 36h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $3 |
| 36h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $5,989 |
| 37h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $3 |
| 37h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $348 |
| 37h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $32 |
| 37h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $5 |
| 38h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $3 |
| 38h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $7 |
| 38h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $65,250 |
| 39h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $13 |
| 39h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $165 |
| 44h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $34,800 |
| 44h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $47,763 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.79 | $55 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.78 | $8 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.71 | $14 |