molodoyy 80
0x564f22744b7941ade18d5e0e4f347c30e3057026 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2025-11
Realized PnL
$43,836
Months in profit
12 / 12
Win rate (events)
48%
ROI per market
3.9%
Avg stake
$361
Median hold
7.5 d
Volume
$733,743
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 1000 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-08-21); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 547 tech 242 crypto 126 weather 29 geopolitics 17 culture 16
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | molodoyy | BUY | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 0.53 | $26 | other |
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1654 | 0.52 | 0.86 | $1,431 | $563 | other |
| Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft? | Yes | 1877 | 0.57 | 0.74 | $1,398 | $322 | other |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1725 | 0.21 | 0.79 | $1,363 | $1,001 | crypto |
| Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 1444 | 0.59 | 0.83 | $1,206 | $355 | tech |
| Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in October? | Yes | 955 | 0.40 | 0.92 | $874 | $490 | other |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 741 | 0.30 | 0.97 | $715 | $494 | tech |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 1000 | 0.72 | 0.71 | $710 | −$10 | politics |
| Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31? | Yes | 1401 | 0.30 | 0.48 | $672 | $245 | crypto |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 840 | 0.59 | 0.80 | $672 | $179 | other |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 725 | 0.85 | 0.92 | $667 | $50 | other |
| Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $100 in 2026? | No | 673 | 0.77 | 0.94 | $629 | $109 | crypto |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | No | 1010 | 0.29 | 0.62 | $629 | $333 | crypto |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31? | Yes | 870 | 0.33 | 0.69 | $598 | $308 | crypto |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 640 | 0.41 | 0.88 | $563 | $300 | other |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | No | 754 | 0.51 | 0.69 | $516 | $134 | crypto |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | No | 3687 | 0.07 | 0.14 | $498 | $225 | other |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 622 | 0.13 | 0.79 | $491 | $407 | other |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 725 | 0.41 | 0.64 | $460 | $160 | other |
| Will Jay Z release an album in 2026? | No | 588 | 0.70 | 0.76 | $447 | $35 | culture |
| Will GPT Sol's output price be at or below $8 in 2026? | No | 672 | 0.28 | 0.66 | $444 | $253 | crypto |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 540 | 0.59 | 0.82 | $443 | $124 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 663 | 0.55 | 0.67 | $441 | $77 | tech |
| Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 464 | 0.70 | 0.92 | $425 | $100 | tech |
| Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31? | Yes | 820 | 0.15 | 0.52 | $422 | $303 | crypto |
| Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027? | Yes | 476 | 0.75 | 0.88 | $417 | $62 | tech |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026? | No | 478 | 0.82 | 0.86 | $410 | $17 | crypto |
| Next Gemini Argon released by January 31, 2027? | No | 563 | 0.49 | 0.70 | $397 | $122 | tech |
| Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026? | Yes | 502 | 0.31 | 0.77 | $384 | $229 | other |
| Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 445 | 0.18 | 0.86 | $381 | $303 | other |
| Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be below 0%? | No | 452 | 0.71 | 0.83 | $377 | $57 | other |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 651 | 0.63 | 0.51 | $329 | −$78 | other |
| Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 462 | 0.53 | 0.65 | $298 | $53 | other |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 524 | 0.43 | 0.51 | $265 | $38 | other |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? | No | 651 | 0.49 | 0.38 | $247 | −$74 | crypto |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1208 | 0.12 | 0.20 | $245 | $97 | crypto |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1573 | 0.51 | 0.15 | $244 | −$566 | tech |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 666 | 0.18 | 0.34 | $229 | $109 | other |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 452 | 0.75 | 0.51 | $228 | −$112 | tech |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1517 | 0.40 | 0.15 | $228 | −$382 | geopolitics |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? | No | 701 | 0.16 | 0.31 | $217 | $105 | other |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | SELL | Will Reve have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026? | No | 0.95 | $14 |
| 3h ago | SELL | Will Shengshu have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | No | 0.95 | $1 |
| 4h ago | SELL | Will Shengshu have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | No | 0.95 | $19 |
| 4h ago | SELL | Will Shengshu have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | No | 0.95 | $18 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19? | Yes | 0.91 | $123 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31? | Yes | 0.38 | $216 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 0.25 | $14 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027? | No | 0.33 | $50 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 0.53 | $26 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Reve have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026? | No | 0.89 | $59 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 0.54 | $38 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 0.53 | $74 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Shengshu have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | No | 0.92 | $18 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 0.13 | $48 |
| 6h ago | BUY | Will Shengshu have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | No | 0.86 | $17 |
| 6h ago | SELL | Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31? | Yes | 0.25 | $4 |
| 6h ago | SELL | Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31? | Yes | 0.26 | $3 |
| 6h ago | SELL | Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31? | Yes | 0.25 | $0 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be below 0%? | No | 0.71 | $321 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Next Mistral Small (4.1+) released by February 28, 2027? | Yes | 0.50 | $128 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027? | No | 0.27 | $5 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.28 | $85 |
| 8h ago | SELL | Next Gemini Argon released by January 31, 2027? | No | 0.88 | $68 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? | Yes | 0.33 | $22 |
| 8h ago | BUY | ChatGPT Outage by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.50 | $30 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 0.50 | $40 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will the median home value in Miami be between $788,000 and $809,000 on December 31? | Yes | 0.16 | $14 |
| 8h ago | SELL | Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31? | Yes | 0.50 | $99 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31? | Yes | 0.53 | $26 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31? | Yes | 0.51 | $140 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $503,000 and $507,000 on December 31? | Yes | 0.18 | $4 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31? | Yes | 0.21 | $16 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? | No | 0.29 | $21 |
| 9h ago | SELL | Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft? | Yes | 0.88 | $164 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $19 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19? | Yes | 0.58 | $12 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19? | Yes | 0.57 | $42 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19? | Yes | 0.57 | $141 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 0.54 | $131 |
| 11h ago | SELL | Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027? | Yes | 0.90 | $298 |