PaddyAlpha 74
0x9ad091ca2e8f1bd69f27662edcb49dceeaa5bf3d · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2024-11
Realized PnL
$53,468
Months in profit
18 / 23
Win rate (events)
66%
ROI per market
0.6%
Avg stake
$3,502
Median hold
101.5 d
Volume
$15,330,083
5m crypto share
1%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 990 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-05-01); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 401 geopolitics 295 crypto 133 esports 54 tech 32 politics 32
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | PaddyAlpha | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.14 | $29 | geopolitics |
| 3h ago | PaddyAlpha | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.28 | $102 | geopolitics |
| 4h ago | PaddyAlpha | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.30 | $133 | geopolitics |
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 3589 | 0.96 | 0.95 | $3,427 | −$1 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6595 | 0.50 | 0.40 | $2,621 | −$663 | geopolitics |
| Will Ali G be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | No | 1895 | 0.94 | 0.99 | $1,867 | $91 | other |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 1722 | 0.98 | 0.99 | $1,701 | $5 | other |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 1708 | 0.97 | 0.96 | $1,636 | −$18 | other |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? | No | 1688 | 0.90 | 0.94 | $1,591 | $68 | other |
| Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? | No | 1836 | 0.85 | 0.67 | $1,231 | −$330 | other |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 5337 | 0.26 | 0.21 | $1,147 | −$217 | geopolitics |
| Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? | No | 2049 | 0.39 | 0.39 | $804 | $14 | other |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 6155 | 0.12 | 0.13 | $800 | $51 | geopolitics |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 3013 | 0.26 | 0.26 | $768 | −$5 | geopolitics |
| Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? | No | 1633 | 0.69 | 0.46 | $751 | −$380 | other |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2557 | 0.27 | 0.26 | $652 | −$46 | geopolitics |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 6970 | 0.08 | 0.09 | $631 | $107 | esports |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | Yes | 2205 | 0.35 | 0.28 | $629 | −$146 | other |
| LA28 Olympics run as scheduled? | No | 3638 | 0.10 | 0.14 | $527 | $146 | other |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 4347 | 0.17 | 0.12 | $500 | −$252 | geopolitics |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes | 2009 | 0.21 | 0.24 | $492 | $69 | geopolitics |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3094 | 0.13 | 0.15 | $480 | $87 | geopolitics |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes | 7714 | 0.08 | 0.04 | $347 | −$279 | geopolitics |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 2288 | 0.18 | 0.14 | $332 | −$77 | other |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4418 | 0.13 | 0.07 | $331 | −$244 | macro |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 3710 | 0.15 | 0.09 | $315 | −$228 | tech |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 3153 | 0.16 | 0.10 | $300 | −$193 | geopolitics |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 2945 | 0.13 | 0.10 | $287 | −$89 | geopolitics |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2878 | 0.10 | 0.09 | $259 | −$36 | geopolitics |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4103 | 0.08 | 0.06 | $246 | −$89 | geopolitics |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 13624 | 0.02 | 0.02 | $211 | −$56 | geopolitics |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | Yes | 1839 | 0.28 | 0.10 | $193 | −$326 | other |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 2521 | 0.18 | 0.07 | $189 | −$265 | geopolitics |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 2065 | 0.08 | 0.09 | $187 | $19 | esports |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2202 | 0.08 | 0.07 | $154 | −$23 | crypto |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 3589 | 0.07 | 0.04 | $153 | −$85 | other |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 3263 | 0.11 | 0.04 | $132 | −$233 | geopolitics |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 3017 | 0.08 | 0.04 | $107 | −$127 | geopolitics |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 2271 | 0.08 | 0.04 | $102 | −$71 | geopolitics |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | Yes | 2866 | 0.06 | 0.03 | $97 | −$62 | other |
| Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? | Yes | 2083 | 0.06 | 0.04 | $86 | −$48 | politics |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2549 | 0.05 | 0.03 | $70 | −$69 | geopolitics |
| Fetterman out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1828 | 0.08 | 0.03 | $56 | −$90 | other |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3m ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.89 | $158 |
| 3m ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $64 |
| 4m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.40 | $8 |
| 5m ago | SELL | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 0.71 | $5 |
| 7m ago | SELL | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? | No | 0.73 | $1 |
| 12m ago | SELL | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 0.71 | $14 |
| 13m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $1 |
| 13m ago | SELL | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 0.71 | $99 |
| 17m ago | SELL | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $68 |
| 19m ago | SELL | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $4 |
| 23m ago | BUY | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes | 0.04 | $1 |
| 23m ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $40 |
| 23m ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $40 |
| 30m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 0.65 | $133 |
| 30m ago | BUY | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 0.98 | $42 |
| 39m ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.89 | $25 |
| 39m ago | BUY | Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $1 |
| 39m ago | SELL | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? | Yes | 0.71 | $11 |
| 42m ago | SELL | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $73 |
| 49m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.39 | $80 |
| 49m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.13 | $21 |
| 50m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.13 | $5 |
| 50m ago | BUY | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? | No | 0.70 | $23 |
| 55m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $3 |
| 56m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $0 |
| 56m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $1 |
| 56m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $1 |
| 56m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $0 |
| 56m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $0 |
| 56m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $0 |
| 56m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.13 | $26 |
| 56m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $0 |
| 56m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $1 |
| 56m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $0 |
| 60m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.13 | $0 |
| 61m ago | BUY | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? | No | 0.70 | $14 |
| 62m ago | SELL | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $180 |
| 63m ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $23 |
| 64m ago | BUY | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? | No | 0.70 | $37 |
| 66m ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $40 |