Parz1vaI 81
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2024-08
Realized PnL
$810,307
Months in profit
23 / 27
Win rate (events)
72%
ROI per market
2.1%
Avg stake
$20,144
Median hold
31.0 d
Volume
$34,986,487
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 999 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-04-20); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 397 geopolitics 234 crypto 126 tech 99 sports 61 esports 32
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | Parz1vaI | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $614 | geopolitics |
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 35190 | 0.84 | 0.85 | $30,087 | $528 | geopolitics |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 31334 | 0.69 | 0.71 | $22,404 | $767 | politics |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 25067 | 0.69 | 0.78 | $19,553 | $2,246 | esports |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 20647 | 0.89 | 0.89 | $18,273 | −$77 | geopolitics |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 17852 | 0.81 | 0.93 | $16,513 | $1,982 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 17492 | 0.74 | 0.88 | $15,306 | $2,433 | geopolitics |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 18747 | 0.65 | 0.79 | $14,782 | $2,519 | other |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 17078 | 0.76 | 0.84 | $14,431 | $1,522 | tech |
| Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 13883 | 0.91 | 0.94 | $13,008 | $416 | other |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 16714 | 0.78 | 0.76 | $12,619 | −$348 | crypto |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 22116 | 0.38 | 0.51 | $11,191 | $2,745 | esports |
| France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | No | 11332 | 0.87 | 0.93 | $10,482 | $617 | other |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | No | 13944 | 0.66 | 0.75 | $10,458 | $1,256 | other |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 14432 | 0.64 | 0.64 | $9,164 | −$72 | politics |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 17576 | 0.61 | 0.51 | $8,876 | −$1,762 | tech |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 10854 | 0.85 | 0.78 | $8,466 | −$794 | politics |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026? | No | 9172 | 0.84 | 0.88 | $8,025 | $328 | crypto |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 14843 | 0.37 | 0.51 | $7,496 | $1,933 | esports |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | No | 7013 | 0.97 | 0.97 | $6,792 | $3 | other |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 16856 | 0.60 | 0.40 | $6,692 | −$3,425 | geopolitics |
| Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 6300 | 0.97 | 0.90 | $5,689 | −$397 | other |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October? | No | 5806 | 0.96 | 0.97 | $5,653 | $54 | crypto |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? | No | 5833 | 0.93 | 0.95 | $5,571 | $171 | other |
| Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 5327 | 0.97 | 0.97 | $5,159 | −$33 | other |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 5889 | 0.83 | 0.87 | $5,147 | $264 | geopolitics |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 6685 | 0.73 | 0.72 | $4,836 | −$26 | other |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | No | 4982 | 0.92 | 0.92 | $4,558 | −$45 | geopolitics |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | Mbappé | 6296 | 0.54 | 0.70 | $4,407 | $1,017 | other |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | No | 4454 | 0.79 | 0.86 | $3,853 | $330 | other |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | No | 3997 | 0.79 | 0.92 | $3,657 | $518 | tech |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? | No | 5377 | 0.64 | 0.56 | $2,984 | −$441 | other |
| Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 2948 | 0.95 | 0.97 | $2,848 | $35 | other |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 3419 | 0.62 | 0.77 | $2,631 | $518 | esports |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | No | 2531 | 0.90 | 0.99 | $2,507 | $229 | other |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | No | 2633 | 0.82 | 0.90 | $2,370 | $200 | other |
| Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 2305 | 0.95 | 0.97 | $2,232 | $34 | other |
| Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 2586 | 0.85 | 0.86 | $2,224 | $16 | other |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 2243 | 0.77 | 0.97 | $2,174 | $446 | crypto |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 2437 | 0.84 | 0.86 | $2,108 | $58 | other |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 1926 | 0.93 | 0.95 | $1,831 | $46 | crypto |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $2,219 |
| 4h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $450 |
| 4h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $36 |
| 4h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $171 |
| 4h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $45 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $106 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $121 |
| 4h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $54 |
| 4h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $59 |
| 4h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $9 |
| 4h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $9 |
| 4h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $19 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $13 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $1 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $977 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $6 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $15 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $7 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $411 |
| 5h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $202 |
| 5h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $614 |
| 6h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $757 |
| 7h ago | BUY | Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 0.99 | $998 |
| 7h ago | BUY | Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.85 | $2,208 |
| 7h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $614 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.73 | $2,131 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.73 | $196 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.93 | $4,418 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.73 | $110 |
| 16h ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $13 |
| 16h ago | BUY | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | Mbappé | 0.68 | $715 |
| 21h ago | BUY | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.78 | $714 |
| 21h ago | BUY | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.85 | $1,133 |
| 22h ago | BUY | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.86 | $2,866 |
| 23h ago | SELL | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.25 | $123 |
| 23h ago | SELL | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.25 | $1,000 |
| 23h ago | SELL | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.25 | $514 |
| 23h ago | SELL | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.25 | $4 |
| 23h ago | SELL | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.25 | $14 |
| 27h ago | BUY | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.87 | $2,900 |