M2sx92kljs42 85
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2025-10
Realized PnL
$57,172
Months in profit
11 / 13
Win rate (events)
78%
ROI per market
10.6%
Avg stake
$2,687
Median hold
24.4 d
Volume
$1,575,737
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 504 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2025-10-13); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
geopolitics 226 other 194 macro 44 tech 16 esports 10 politics 7
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trades captured yet. The feed fills up as tracked wallets trade. | |||||||
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 29901 | 0.07 | 0.89 | $26,462 | $24,396 | other |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | No | 15261 | 0.33 | 0.95 | $14,498 | $9,406 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 15896 | 0.65 | 0.90 | $14,227 | $3,867 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 21658 | 0.18 | 0.61 | $13,190 | $9,190 | geopolitics |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | No | 13525 | 0.80 | 0.95 | $12,835 | $2,076 | macro |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 16346 | 0.57 | 0.72 | $11,851 | $2,479 | esports |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | No | 9887 | 0.92 | 0.92 | $9,046 | −$44 | geopolitics |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 10794 | 0.68 | 0.76 | $8,150 | $843 | other |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 10469 | 0.78 | 0.76 | $7,904 | −$218 | crypto |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | No | 8625 | 0.41 | 0.85 | $7,374 | $3,801 | other |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 7000 | 0.80 | 0.94 | $6,615 | $1,035 | geopolitics |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 6166 | 0.82 | 0.94 | $5,765 | $686 | geopolitics |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? | No | 7497 | 0.73 | 0.77 | $5,735 | $259 | macro |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 5893 | 0.66 | 0.90 | $5,274 | $1,385 | geopolitics |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 4954 | 0.72 | 0.84 | $4,186 | $631 | tech |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31? | No | 4420 | 0.93 | 0.95 | $4,180 | $62 | macro |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 3157 | 0.83 | 0.93 | $2,921 | $311 | geopolitics |
| FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31? | No | 2861 | 0.95 | 0.99 | $2,843 | $113 | geopolitics |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 3695 | 0.74 | 0.76 | $2,790 | $43 | other |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 2839 | 0.67 | 0.94 | $2,683 | $783 | geopolitics |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 3052 | 0.61 | 0.81 | $2,457 | $595 | geopolitics |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 2625 | 0.56 | 0.92 | $2,402 | $932 | other |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 2707 | 0.00 | 0.87 | $2,343 | $2,343 | other |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | No | 2303 | 0.95 | 0.94 | $2,166 | −$19 | other |
| Will Israel Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Defense? | No | 2150 | 0.90 | 0.91 | $1,947 | $6 | politics |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | No | 2086 | 0.65 | 0.85 | $1,773 | $415 | geopolitics |
| Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026? | No | 1852 | 0.83 | 0.93 | $1,713 | $177 | other |
| Turkey military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | No | 1407 | 0.90 | 0.99 | $1,397 | $132 | other |
| Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? | No | 1435 | 0.83 | 0.96 | $1,374 | $177 | politics |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? | No | 1321 | 0.84 | 0.87 | $1,149 | $40 | other |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 2688 | 0.35 | 0.41 | $1,089 | $159 | macro |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? | No | 1106 | 0.75 | 0.92 | $1,012 | $185 | other |
| Turkey military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? | No | 973 | 0.85 | 0.92 | $891 | $59 | other |
| Will Yariv Levin be the next Israeli Minister of Justice? | No | 873 | 0.84 | 0.93 | $812 | $82 | politics |
| Ilhan Omar arrested by October 31, 2026? | No | 817 | 0.93 | 0.96 | $788 | $31 | other |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense? | No | 960 | 0.82 | 0.82 | $787 | $2 | politics |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 881 | 0.82 | 0.86 | $757 | $33 | other |
| Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 664 | 0.78 | 0.95 | $634 | $119 | other |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | No | 632 | 0.66 | 0.87 | $550 | $133 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | 708 | 0.53 | 0.73 | $517 | $140 | geopolitics |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53m ago | BUY | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | No | 0.91 | $4,127 |
| 57m ago | SELL | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 0.87 | $5,395 |
| 60m ago | SELL | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | No | 0.90 | $100 |
| 60m ago | SELL | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | No | 0.90 | $350 |
| 25h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 0.61 | $468 |
| 25h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 0.61 | $173 |
| 25h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 0.61 | $879 |
| 25h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 0.61 | $82 |
| 26h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 0.61 | $259 |
| 26h ago | BUY | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | No | 0.88 | $2,900 |
| 27h ago | SELL | Will Miri Regev be the next Israeli Minister of Interior? | No | 0.99 | $20 |
| 36h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.37 | $122 |
| 36h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.37 | $18 |
| 36h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.37 | $148 |
| 36h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.37 | $50 |
| 36h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.37 | $74 |
| 36h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.37 | $83 |
| 36h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.36 | $360 |
| 36h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.37 | $130 |
| 36h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.37 | $78 |
| 36h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.37 | $222 |
| 38h ago | BUY | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.34 | $385 |
| 38h ago | BUY | Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.85 | $217 |
| 39h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.25 | $1,070 |
| 39h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | No | 0.29 | $865 |
| 39h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.31 | $2,073 |
| 47h ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.46 | $23 |
| 2d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.46 | $2 |
| 2d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $37 |
| 2d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $20 |
| 2d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $16 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? | No | 0.73 | $2,170 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $2 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $20 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $14 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $5 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $20 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $1 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $4 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.45 | $762 |