KrackenSruster 77
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2024-10
Realized PnL
$270,886
Months in profit
19 / 25
Win rate (events)
66%
ROI per market
5.9%
Avg stake
$4,469
Median hold
19.5 d
Volume
$4,617,538
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 894 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2024-10-05); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
geopolitics 626 other 207 esports 18 macro 14 crypto 14 politics 10
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trades captured yet. The feed fills up as tracked wallets trade. | |||||||
Open positions (37)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 55146 | 0.54 | 0.89 | $48,804 | $18,751 | geopolitics |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | No | 37653 | 0.77 | 0.95 | $35,771 | $6,933 | geopolitics |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 37101 | 0.73 | 0.94 | $34,690 | $7,677 | geopolitics |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 35003 | 0.75 | 0.89 | $30,978 | $4,861 | geopolitics |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | No | 19261 | 0.91 | 0.97 | $18,712 | $1,120 | geopolitics |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | No | 16122 | 0.79 | 0.98 | $15,727 | $2,917 | geopolitics |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | Yes | 14839 | 0.86 | 0.95 | $14,060 | $1,348 | other |
| Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | No | 17566 | 0.47 | 0.65 | $11,418 | $3,110 | geopolitics |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 12173 | 0.64 | 0.93 | $11,321 | $3,579 | geopolitics |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 11128 | 0.90 | 0.99 | $10,972 | $998 | geopolitics |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | No | 10851 | 0.60 | 0.96 | $10,444 | $3,920 | geopolitics |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | No | 10520 | 0.45 | 0.82 | $8,679 | $3,940 | geopolitics |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 8800 | 0.79 | 0.85 | $7,524 | $613 | geopolitics |
| Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026? | No | 5931 | 0.78 | 0.97 | $5,770 | $1,118 | geopolitics |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 5795 | 0.55 | 0.83 | $4,839 | $1,652 | geopolitics |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? | No | 5396 | 0.80 | 0.82 | $4,425 | $83 | geopolitics |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 4678 | 0.68 | 0.90 | $4,187 | $1,020 | geopolitics |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | No | 6377 | 0.60 | 0.65 | $4,113 | $286 | geopolitics |
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? | No | 3660 | 0.87 | 0.92 | $3,358 | $160 | esports |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? | No | 3608 | 0.79 | 0.91 | $3,283 | $423 | geopolitics |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 2730 | 0.64 | 0.97 | $2,649 | $903 | geopolitics |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 2244 | 0.67 | 0.91 | $2,042 | $542 | geopolitics |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 3422 | 0.37 | 0.58 | $2,002 | $744 | geopolitics |
| NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027? | No | 1991 | 0.96 | 0.95 | $1,900 | −$11 | geopolitics |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | No | 2243 | 0.71 | 0.74 | $1,659 | $67 | geopolitics |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? | No | 2000 | 0.67 | 0.74 | $1,480 | $130 | geopolitics |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | No | 1967 | 0.62 | 0.69 | $1,367 | $152 | geopolitics |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? | No | 7507 | 0.48 | 0.15 | $1,164 | −$2,477 | other |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 1212 | 0.68 | 0.90 | $1,084 | $263 | geopolitics |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | No | 1253 | 0.38 | 0.82 | $1,027 | $555 | geopolitics |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 1000 | 0.62 | 0.73 | $735 | $115 | geopolitics |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 907 | 0.16 | 0.78 | $703 | $553 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 883 | 0.38 | 0.61 | $534 | $200 | geopolitics |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? | No | 697 | 0.66 | 0.69 | $484 | $22 | geopolitics |
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? | No | 321 | 0.50 | 0.91 | $292 | $133 | geopolitics |
| Saudi troops enter Sanaa by December 31, 2026? | No | 261 | 0.82 | 0.94 | $244 | $30 | other |
| Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? | No | 1 | 0.83 | 0.92 | $1 | $0 | geopolitics |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28h ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | No | 0.83 | $345 |
| 34h ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.91 | $345 |
| 34h ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.91 | $131 |
| 34h ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.91 | $1,057 |
| 34h ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $2,288 |
| 34h ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.89 | $1,466 |
| 34h ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.91 | $91 |
| 34h ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.91 | $32 |
| 34h ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.91 | $156 |
| 2d ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.89 | $152 |
| 2d ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.89 | $91 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.98 | $25 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.98 | $411 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.98 | $212 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.98 | $199 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.98 | $199 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.98 | $199 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.98 | $173 |
| 5d ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.95 | $799 |
| 5d ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.95 | $211 |
| 5d ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.95 | $48 |
| 5d ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.95 | $19 |
| 5d ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.95 | $74 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 0.93 | $1,534 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | No | 0.95 | $357 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.71 | $3 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.71 | $11 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.71 | $1,578 |
| 6d ago | SELL | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 0.93 | $353 |
| 6d ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.77 | $817 |
| 7d ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.77 | $5 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.54 | $248 |
| 8d ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.77 | $104 |
| 8d ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.77 | $39 |
| 8d ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? | No | 0.94 | $165 |
| 8d ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? | No | 0.94 | $28 |
| 8d ago | SELL | Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? | No | 0.94 | $372 |
| 9d ago | BUY | Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? | No | 0.75 | $30 |
| 9d ago | BUY | Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? | No | 0.75 | $50 |
| 9d ago | BUY | Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? | No | 0.75 | $42 |