GoriIIa 78
0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2024-06
Realized PnL
$539,876
Months in profit
21 / 27
Win rate (events)
72%
ROI per market
1.9%
Avg stake
$66,674
Median hold
15.1 d
Volume
$32,182,497
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 414 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2024-06-24); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 154 geopolitics 95 esports 61 sports 41 politics 25 macro 20
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trades captured yet. The feed fills up as tracked wallets trade. | |||||||
Open positions (25)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 255927 | 0.83 | 0.94 | $241,851 | $28,485 | other |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 206581 | 0.91 | 0.98 | $201,726 | $14,038 | geopolitics |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 43980 | 0.85 | 0.92 | $40,241 | $2,638 | esports |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 28820 | 0.94 | 0.95 | $27,523 | $528 | geopolitics |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 28213 | 0.85 | 0.89 | $24,968 | $879 | geopolitics |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 28164 | 0.83 | 0.87 | $24,601 | $1,161 | geopolitics |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 27191 | 0.89 | 0.84 | $22,976 | −$1,357 | politics |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | No | 12074 | 0.92 | 0.99 | $11,935 | $832 | other |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | Yes | 10231 | 0.89 | 0.88 | $8,952 | −$153 | esports |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | No | 9734 | 0.89 | 0.88 | $8,566 | −$97 | esports |
| France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | No | 8285 | 0.85 | 0.90 | $7,457 | $436 | other |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026 | No | 6620 | 0.97 | 0.97 | $6,392 | −$10 | other |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 6298 | 0.94 | 0.95 | $5,961 | $19 | other |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 7000 | 0.87 | 0.78 | $5,425 | −$665 | esports |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 4871 | 0.85 | 0.85 | $4,165 | $24 | geopolitics |
| France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | No | 4411 | 0.94 | 0.93 | $4,080 | −$66 | other |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 5765 | 0.70 | 0.70 | $4,065 | $29 | politics |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 5908 | 0.66 | 0.65 | $3,811 | −$89 | esports |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3800 | 0.87 | 0.86 | $3,287 | −$19 | macro |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | No | 1238 | 0.95 | 0.98 | $1,210 | $29 | crypto |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 1300 | 0.52 | 0.72 | $941 | $263 | other |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027? | No | 300 | 0.81 | 0.81 | $245 | $2 | other |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 1098 | 0.46 | 0.19 | $212 | −$293 | other |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | Yes | 7001 | 0.53 | 0.00 | $0 | −$3,711 | esports |
| Singapore Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez | Mirra Andreeva | 900 | 0.45 | 0.00 | $0 | −$405 | sports |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | BUY | Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 0.88 | $9,363 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 0.87 | $547 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $510 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $5,941 |
| 4h ago | BUY | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $4,146 |
| 4h ago | BUY | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.85 | $9 |
| 4h ago | BUY | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.85 | $7,013 |
| 4h ago | SELL | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 0.91 | $66,235 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027? | No | 0.81 | $243 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.87 | $3,306 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | No | 0.95 | $1,181 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026 | No | 0.97 | $27 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026 | No | 0.97 | $33 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026 | No | 0.97 | $484 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026 | No | 0.97 | $5,767 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026 | No | 0.97 | $91 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? | No | 0.00 | $3 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.64 | $192 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? | No | 0.71 | $946 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $46 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $1,400 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $7 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $0 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $7 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $70 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $14 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $5 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $2 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $1 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $4 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $3 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $5 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $16 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $70 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $4 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $3 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $14 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $287 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $113 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $49 |